EU inflation and French mortgages

With the news today that inflation has return to the Eurozone, what does this mean for the outlook for interest rates for French mortgages? The increase in consumer prices for the month of November marks the end of a five month cycle of deflation across the European economic area. The 0.6% rise was driven largely by rises in energy prices which are common at this time of year but exacerbated by the returning trend for oil speculation with traders finding it cheaper to store the oil and to take orders for delivery in six months time. This practice serves to drive up the prices but reducing the supply in the face of increasing demand as oil consuming companies look to hedge against rising costs.

This increase in inflation will increase pressure of the ECB to raise the rates for French mortgages but the pressure to not halt the shoots of growth in the economy with jobless figures still rising will mean that in the short term interest rate rises are still quite unlikely. In the longer term inflation and growth will take a firmer hold, bringing increases in French property prices as investors continue to move out of cash and into assets such as gold and property to avoid the erosion of their net position due to rising inflation. However, with the return of confidence to the market we are predicting in early 2010 and the activity in the market for ski properties we may actually see French lenders starting to decrease their margins slightly and thus their rates for French mortgages will fall in the short term, in order to remain competitive.

If you are looking to purchase in France in the coming months then it would be a good idea to speak to your broker for an up to date view on the timings of any of the rate decreases and when the each individual French bank publishes their rates in order to get the best deal. Alternatively, you can view our current best buys for mortgages in France.

Posted in: French mortgage rates,Mortgages in France